Far from damaging Brown over that letter, the Sun has actually rallied support for him. Personally I was appalled at the way the rag of a paper acted. Rolling out the mother didn’t help either. It was interesting that GB also had support and praise from the soldiers returning from the front last week. The backlash against the Sun and then wining in Glasgow have given Mr B a lifeline.
Peter Osborne in the Mail to day takes a sideways look at the position of the two main parties and does some interesting comparisons.
He notes that Gordon Brown, despite his continuing unpopularity, is in a far stronger position than John Major was in the winter of 1996.For almost all of 1996, Blair's Labour Party enjoyed a poll rating of well over 50 per cent, while its advantage over the Tories was consistently in double figures. By contrast, Cameron's Tories have a rating of approximately 40 per cent over the past year and a lead over Labour of just over 10 per cent.
Governments tend to improve their popularity in the polls during the run-ups to general elections, so Cameron’s lead, say Osborne, is likely to drop away slightly in the coming months.
A more fundamental problem faced by David Cameron is the fact that the electoral system is skewed against the Tories. Constituency boundaries are biased against them and this inbuilt unfairness meant that in the last general election it took 45,000 votes to elect a Tory MP but only 27,600 votes to elect a Labour one. There have been adjustments but the dis advantage is still huge.
According to John Maloney of Exeter University, the Tories must secure a 10 per cent lead over Labour to win an overall majority of just one seat at the next election. David Cameron faces a very high mountain to climb. Conservative strategists are keenly aware of this problem, as is Cameron himself.
An internal Tory Party document sets out the scale of the problem, 'The Conservatives have never won a General Election from a starting point as weak as they face now.'
The paper calculates that to win a majority, the Conservatives must hold every seat they won in 2005, plus an additional 117 constituencies. To put that in perspective, Margaret Thatcher notched up an additional 63 seats in 1979 for the Tories, while Edward Heath made 69 gains in 1970.The Tory briefing note sums up the problem as follows: 'To become Prime Minister, David Cameron must surpass the electoral achievements of both Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill.'
Even a simple overall majority would not be enough for DC to govern effectively. He needs a working majority of at least 30 seats (which means a majority of 15 per cent over Labour on Election Day).
So is everything still to play for, I wonder if anyone has done the maths in Wales on this?
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if some of the Daily Mail's journalists aren't fully behind the Conservatives at this point in the electoral cycle than there could well be a chance however slim for Gordon Brown and Labour.
All to play indeed. Seats to watch are the 2 Vales and Cardiff North.
can't help thinking that Adam Price comment about being comfortable with a Tory win will damage Plaid in places like Llanelli and Aberconwy.
do you really think we in the uk should be critisising afganistan when our own electoral bias is third world?
I'm afraid Peter Osborne's article perpetuates a couple of myths.
Firstly, the comparison with John Major in the winter of 1996 is flawed. The pollsters have all changed their methodologies substantially since then. If they had then been using the methodologies they use today, they would have been showing much smaller leads for Blair. The only pollster still using the same methodologies it was in 1996 is ICM, so the only valid comparison is using their figures. They had Blair's lead in the winter of 1996 at about the same level as they are currently showing for Cameron's lead. It is also worth noting that Major's Conservatives were generally getting poll ratings in the 30s whereas Brown's Labour is now polling in the 20s. So Gordon Brown is definitely not in a stronger position than John Major was.
Secondly, the statement that governments tend to improve their popularity in the polls during the run up to a general election is also wrong. Research by Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com has shown that the Conservatives tend to improve their popularity in the polls during the run up to a general election, regardless of whether they are in government or in opposition. This is obviously bad news for Brown and Labour.
John Maloney's suggestion that the Tories need a 10 per cent lead over Labour to win an overall majority is also unlikely to be true. He would be right if predicting the result by uniform national swing actually worked (although even then it would depend on the performance of the minor parties). But we know that UNS breaks down when there is a large swing with far more seats changing hands than UNS would predict. To give one obvious specific, Maloney's figure assumes that there will still be tactical voting against the Conservatives in the next general election and that this will again cost them around 30-35 seats. It seems highly likely that anti-Conservative tactical voting will largely unwind at this election. Indeed, there is some evidence that we may well see anti-Labour tactical voting. Historically, since the Second World War any party gaining a 6% lead in the popular vote has always ended up with an overall majority. I would be amazed if the Conservatives failed to win a very comfortable majority if they have a 10% lead on election day.
Of course, it isn't over until the votes are cast and counted. However, it seems increasingly unlikely that Labour can stage a comeback. And the evidence of tonight's polls (ComRes and YouGov both giving the Conservatives a 14% lead) is that, although many people think the Sun went too far, this isn't translating into people voting for Labour.
Very interesting. I would expect Plaid and the SNP to make some good gains and between them have a decent size group. A hung parliament or even a very slim majortity for any party could make some interesting times. The Lib Dems will also have an important role post election.
I still expect Cameron to win, and perhaps easier than the article makes out but certainly the maths are interesting and it is not as done a deal as expected in many ways.
The fact is Brown is the leader of a country for god sake, he has at the snap of his fingers secretaries ,advisor's, under sectaries, a wife. he knows he has problems spelling so he sends a letter to a mother who has just lost her son, yes she is bitter who the hell can blame her.
We are at war but hardly a bloody soul knows what the war is for, he says it's to keep terrorist off the streets of the UK, sadly nobody believes that.
I'm sorry but after a life time of voting labour I've had enough.
Labour is now the party in which if it does not win enough middle England votes it's going to get thumped and it deserves to, if the leader cannot check a dam letter for the right dam name
I do wish bloggers would stop comparing 1996 to now. It is so tiresome, and has no relevance whatsoever to what is going on now.
"the Sun has actually rallied support for him."
Really? Where is the evidence for this in the two latest opinion polls, showing Labour with a 14% defecit?
Brown deserved an Oscar for that pitiful press conference he gave after Lettergate. The whole thing was a carefully choreographed act - unless, of course, people are now saying Brown is NOT a deeply cynical, number-crunching automaton.
The man's a disgrace, a sham, and an appalling endictment of our democracy's failings.
sarah where do you get off telling bloggers what to do.May be if you read the post and widened your eyes you would see more.I thought the press conference showed a man who cared.And no I am not a labour supporter
its obvious you dont like Brown, but he isnt the threat to democracy,its rubbish like the Sunand its pack of attack dogs that are that
It seems that Lizzie M and a swathe of the public remain blind to the deceptions and machinations of the autocratic New Labour has-beens and in particular its discredited PM.
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